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In the Macklin office they watched an unchanging wide shot of the Opposition’s body language, and they were wriggling like worms on a fork before a growing flame.
– Bob Ellis, on Rudd’s first Question Time back as leader.

I know this seems like a strange thing to say, but does Abbott already realize that he has lost the election ?

On the news he looks strangely lifeless…defeated. No more somersaults.

Consolidated polls show variation around a dead-heat with the Coalition as likely as the ALP to be microscopically in front.

That CO2 is harmless and invisible nonsense came out of the blue. Was he trying to shore up his Party base with a Climate Change-Denialist dog-whistle. Was it just a gaffe ? Or a whiff of panic ? Bad news in the private polling ?

So what of the bravura of the Opposition demanding an election immediately ? If they know they’ve lost why call for an election straight away? Fair point, logical, you may be right. I cannot gainsay you. But perhaps that bravura is merely…bravura. Maybe election NOW was merely required by their three year long insistence on the same demand. Maybe they were trying to push Rudd into the campaign before he had his personal strategies bedded down.

The body language of the LNP members in Parliament on the day of Kev’s re-ascension was uneasy. I just thought it was passing disappointment with the evaporation of their guaranteed victory. The thing is, that unease is still palpable.

Joe Hockey may deride Rudd as Kevin Kardashian, but to my mind that’s a Freudian slip. Rudd is popular. Abbott is not. No-one is crowding shopping malls and screaming with delirium because Abbott is there. Especially not in states with nine marginal seats under 5%. But they are with Rudd. Hockey’s insult reveals the soft nature of voter support for Abbott, and it makes Hockey worried.

I can’t help thinking…
Is Bob Ellis right ?

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