Can Rudd Win ?
Bottom Line: No
The swing is away from the ALP except in Queensland (and possibly – late mail – WA). And the ALP will not get enough out of Queensland to counter losses in other states.
Some useful stuff-ups by the Libs in the last few days could dampen the swing. And Rudd has pulled some useful tactical moves (support for Marriage Equality and recruitment of Beattie) which will help him. And Abbott with his suppository of all wisdom and sex-appeal comments on consecutive days is building a pleasing charisma of imbecility around the LNP.
The LNP are doing the headless chook on Treasury figures and the GST, now treating the PEFO figures with caution after seemingly settling on their accuracy after rejecting them as fabrications and before that stating they are indispensable to proper debate. On the GST, Abbott’s No changes. Full Stop. End of story. continues to contrast with Sinodinos’ not in the first term characterization.
Shame that Rudd performed so poorly in the first leaders’ debate. But I digress.
For the starting point of my electoral state of play I am using the Morgan Poll of August 2-4 which has the latest state-by-state breakdown including trends. I like Morgan for two reasons. First, it polls by mixed-mode instead of relying exclusively on land lines like most others do, which under-represents the under-30’s vote. Second, it allocates preferences by actually asking respondents what they will do rather than allocating them on the 2010 result.
I then make some adjustments to Morgan based on wot Antony Green sez and my own highly subjective opinions.
Morgan showing swing to ALP of 3.2%.
Sorry Morgan. That’s a bridge too far for me. I can’t believe the NSW corruption scandals and Asylum-seeker frenzy will not lose the ALP votes. I’ll guess that the swing will be to the Libs and it will be 2.5%. Nathan Rees said on The Drum (I think it was 22nd July) that the Obeid corruption scandals would cost the ALP 3%. I’ll just basically award that as a swing even though Rees means something different to that. That gives the Libs 53.7% 2PP.
I’m also awarding Dobell to the Libs as I think Craig Thompson has been irredeemably tarnished. The Libs need 5.1% to win Dobell and I think they’ll get it.
Result: ALP lose 7 seats. The four most marginal Western Suburbs seats plus the two seats formerly occupied by Oakeshott and Windsor plus Dobell.
Morgan showing a swing to LNP of 1.8% which gives the Libs 46.5%.
That feels low to me. The Gillard local hero factor is gone and I can’t really see the Libs getting less than 48% anywhere except the ACT and maybe TAS, plus Rudd announced a FBT tax crackdown on cars with potential implications for the Vic car industry and component makers.
Rudd has tried to sweeten this by offering $200m to the car industry and the LNP has not yet responded in kind. But I think that severe nervousness in the blue-collar workers will cause them to run like the plague from Rudd’s FBT crack-down. Heck, their colleagues in Sth Aust just voted for a three-year wage freeze. How much do you expect the blueys to take?
I’m giving the LNP 50% 2PP. I think that’s reasonable. That’s a swing of 5.3%
Result: ALP lose 3 seats
Interestingly, both major parties are basing themselves in Victoria for this election. To get a 4th seat the Libs need 5.8% swing, that’s Chisholm held by Anna Burke whose performance as Speaker was brilliant. ALP wont lose that one. After THAT is the seat of Bruce for which the Libs need 7.2%. Nah.
Morgan showing a swing to ALP of 5.1%.
Return of Rudd local hero. Queenslanders would vote for a toaster if it came from Queensland.
A 5.1% swing would give the ALP 9 seats. From that I will deduct Fisher, currently held by Peter Slipper, on the basis that Longman is a fake marginal according to psephology monomaniacs such as Dr Kevin Bonham. In short, Slipper’s personal unpopularity PRIOR TO this term dragged the margin closer to the ALP.
With him out of the way, the LNP will poll better there.
Yes, the LNP candidate for Fisher is Mal Brough whom a judge said abused legal process in order to destroy Peter Slipper for personal political gain and he should be unelectable, but the media have chosen to basically ignore Brough’s behaviour. So the LNP will retain Fisher.
Result: ALP gain 8 seats.
4. Western Australia
Morgan showing a swing to LNP of 2.1% giving 2PP 58.5%, but I think Barnett’s recent arrogance will create a swing away from the Libs good enough for one seat to go over to the ALP.
The 58.5% reported by Morgan last fortnight seems fair. WA is owned by the LNP at the moment, so they are already working off a high base with further gains hard to come by.
The next available seat is Brand, held by Gary Gray on a 3.6% margin. It seems a bit too much for the LNP to get especially since the Barnett LNP State government has just unashamedly broken some election promises and said that its no big deal that they have done so.
Barnett had to back flip on an sudden halving of the pay-in tariff for solar power fed by households back into the electricity grid and then ramped up various other taxes and charges. He has admitted WA has budget troubles after a dozen years of unprecedented boom. Not a good look.
Said Mr. Barnett, gobsmackingly:
the community doesn’t study election commitments and shouldn’t expect all of the pledges to be adhered to.
Barnett must be ignoring his medication to spout a line like that; especially after three years of the Ju-Liar meme on her broken Carbon Tax promise and Abbott all week tip-toeing around definite commitments to anything using the wafer-thin excuse of probity.
Then another Sandgroper, Don Randall, the Federal MP for Canning said that a Tony Abbott-led government may have to consider reversing election promises, with figures expected to show the poor state of the Federal Budget. Oops. That was a rather unfortunate confirmation of the transparently obvious costings-free strategy being run by the Libs.
Gray is high-profile. Brand would be hard to win anyway and is outside the reported swing. Barnett’s arrogant comments have cooked it. Brand will be retained.
But in fact, Barnett’s liberties with his election promises and the pre-selection of a strong ALP candidate in the seat of Perth have led two WA analysts to say the ALP is dead certain to pick up either or both of Hasluck and Perth.
OK. I’ll go with that.
Result: ALP gain 1 seat in WA
5. South Australia
Morgan is showing a 5.7% swing to LNP, giving them 52.5% 2PP. That’s not enough for the Libs to gain the most marginal ALP seat on offer which is Hindmarsh on 6.1%, and the sitting MP, Steve Georgianis is a respected local MP with a good personal following.
Having said that, the psephologists say that a couple of SA seats may be vulnerable to higher swings as the LNP basically ran dead in most electorates there in the past two elections to sandbag the more marginal seats of Boothby and Sturt.
So the LNP would be hoping for Adelaide (held by Sports Minister Kym Ellis 7.5%) and Wakefield (10.5%).
I’ll stick with Morgan
Result: No change in SA
Morgan is showing a 1% swing to LNP, giving them 41% 2PP.
No. Too low. Tas has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, around 9%. I think they’ll be twitchy. Plus Antony Green sez that the Tas State ALP/Green alliance govt. is on the nose. He is foreshadowing a 2 seat loss for the ALP, implying a swing of 7.5% and Lib 2PP of 53.1%.
I’ll go with AG.
Result: ALP lose 2 seats and Wilkie to retain Denison.
7. Northern Territory
No breakdown by Morgan.
A large number of local issues are running against the ALP, not least lingering anger at the interruption of live cattle exports in June 2011. Also, the ALP’s continuation of a LNP policy, John Howard’s ‘Intervention’, is causing the ALP to bleed votes as Aboriginal communities protest against arrogant and heavy-handed govt. intervention and the loss of self-determination. Lingiari voters are also less than impressed with the idea of establishing a nuclear waste dump near Tennant Creek on Aboriginal traditional land. The LNP have organised and campaigned very well in the NT. I think they’ll pick up Lingiari.
I am relying here on the very good analysis by Rolf Gerritson at The Conversation.
Result: ALP lose 1 seat.
No breakdown by Morgan.
This place is ALP gold.
Result: No change in ACT
TOTAL NET RESULT:
ALP lose 4 seats, Independents lose 2 seats, LNP gain 6 seats.
LNP: 79 seats
ALP: 68 seats
Other: 3 – Wilkie, Katter, Bandt
Marriage Equality causes an avalanche in Under 25 vote and helps retain one or more seats.
There is a realistic possibility of a Marriage Equality bite in this election as Abbott gaffes his way through the issue, saying just today that the issue is simultaneously a vapid, merely trendy fashion while also being very important.
Abbott is at present producing the flaky campaign Left-Liberal commentators expected in 2010 but didn’t get from him. In three days now we have three flakes: suppository, sex appeal and trendy marriage equality. Nice. Nice.
What The ALP Need To Win.
They require 6 more seats and Green support from Adam Brandt in Melbourne.
So they need to:
hold Tasmania and NT
plus keep NSW swing to 1.0% (retain Banks, Lindsay; lose Robertson)
plus pinch Greenway by Doofus factor.
or allow 1.4% swing (retain Banks; lose Lindsay, Robertson) and also retain Dobell (Craig Thompson’s seat) and pinch Greenway by Doofus factor
i.e. must retain nearly all of the highly marginal seats in Western Sydney.
which implies Libs must poll 52.2 or less in NSW (52.6 if Dobell is retained) and get lucky in Greenway.
Australia – meet your new Prime Minister, Tony Abbott.