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Consensus on the latest polling says the LNP home comfortably on 53-47.
But I think the raw figures tell a lot closer story than that.
Basically I think the major pollsters are not allocating preferences correctly.

ReachTEL, which is not an ALP-friendly polling house, in the sense that its polls tend to overstate the LNP vote, has the following for 4 September, 3 days before the election

Labor 32.7
LNP 43.6
Greens 10
Katter 1.6
PUP 6.1
Other 6

I will use the following preference flows:
GRN -> ALP 86% -> 8.6
KAP -> ALP 55% -> 0.88
PUP -> ALP 62% -> 3.78
OTH -> ALP 50% -> 3.00

That gives the ALP 32.7 + 16.26 = 48.96.

ALP on 48.96 2PP three days before election day.
That gives Rudd some hope.

My justification for the preference flows is Nielsen figures showing 55% KAP prefs for ALP and 62% PUP for ALP. The same article gives an 86% Greens flow.

BUT

Rudd is sandbagging seats he already holds, especially in Tasmania, not strutting around in LNP marginals
While Abbott even takes the luxury of visiting, Hotham in Victoria, a seat held by the ALP on 21%
That’s a reality check.

Can Rudd Win (1) here

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  1. […] must have been fevered to the point of hallucination yesterday. Let’s face it. Desperate for good news. That Lonergan poll showing the ALP on 2PP got me […]

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