I must have been fevered to the point of hallucination yesterday. Let’s face it. Desperate for good news. That Lonergan poll showing the ALP on 48-49 2PP got me hoping. But it was a mobile-phone poll only which mode favours the ALP. No, the three latest polls by the big polling houses show the LNP on 54 or better and the Morgan Mixed-Mode with respondent allocated preferences has the LNP at 53.5%. That’s going to be close I reckon.
Morgan then gives individual seat predictions and comes out with 91-56-3 (Bandt, Katter, Wilkie)
My remaining hope: The Senate holds up for the Greens
On a state-by-state breakdown, the Morgan figures show the following:
Swing to LNP of 2.9%
ALP lose 2 seats.
2. Western Australia
Swing to LNP of 2.1%
No change. In my earlier predictions I said that Hasluck would fall to the ALP due to voter disgust with Barnett breaking State election promises. That issue broke 3 weeks ago which puts it in Paleolithic terms electorally. So, I think I’ll take that back. Even though the WA swing to LNP has not increased since then, general sentiment has hardened against the ALP. I think the Sandgropers will differentiate between State and Federal issues and decide, in their typically insular way, that the Mining Tax is a Socialist theft of their rightful Sandgropery patrimony.
3. South Australia
Swing to LNP of 8.7%
ALP lose 2 seats including that of Minister for Childcare and Early Childhood, Kate Ellis
Swing to LNP of 5.6%
Antony Green’s election calculator shows no change on that swing, but the whole world, Antony Green included, says that 2 seats will fall due to pent-up resentment against the Labour/Green state government. ALP lose two seats.
Swing to LNP of 0.3%.
Like I said before, this swing seems too small given Western Sydney resentment against asylum-seekers and residual contempt for the corrupt state-level Obeid Inc. systematic appropriation of public assets.
Antony Green’s calculator says 0.3% wins no extra seats except for those vacated by the country independents Windsor and Oakeshott, but my gut feel says the LNP will acquire the five marginal seats up to 2.7%, plus Dobell (Craig Thomson).
From this, to honour the consistent polling showing a smaller swing, I will deduct Greenway, home of the campaign-challenged James Diaz, who, after several weeks of intensive effort and in seclusion from personal contact with the electorate, can now name five of the six points of the LNP’s denial-of-asylum-seeker program.
LNP gain 6 seats, 4 from ALP and 2 IND.
Swing to LNP of 5.8%
AG’s calculator shows ALP losing 4 seats, including Chisholm (just), home of speaker Anna Burke. Anna Burke generated a very positive profile while speaker so I think she will retain.
Sophie Mirabella to retain Indi. Despite her personal unpopularity eroding the LNP vote over the last three elections and a good Independent candidate, the last figures I saw showed Mirabella on 47 and the Independent McGowan on 25. That would put McGowan second in the count, but I think she needs to poll 30 to parlay that into a win. Suffer in yer jocks. Sophie to continue her reign of terror.
ALP may conceivably recover Melbourne from the Greens Adam Bandt, but there is evidence to say the consumers of Chardonnay-infused Latte which plague the cafes and bookshops around the great and noble MCG will keep their favoured son in a job. Bandt to retain
ALP lose 3 seats
7. Northern Territory
Local issues, ALP being blamed for a LNP policy (The Notorious Intervention) and good LNP organisation mean LNP will pick up Lingiari.
ALP lose 1 seat
So that gives an LNP gain of 16 seats which yields 88-59-3
The Barbarians are back.
So that’s it then.
Pity they’ll stuff up the NBN (knocking down productivity) and remove every environmental protection on the books. Also a shame they’ll build road instead of rail (nulling out productivity benefits) and restore Industrial Relations to be indistinguishable from Workchoices (which will kill productivity cold) and continue to nurture racism and xenophobia by vilification of asylum-seekers. The Paid Parental Leave I don’t mind, even though its a bit too expensive and has no productivity benefit. It’ll flow into higher prices too because companies will pass the Company Tax levy on to consumers. Also the lack of any employment or industry policy initiative is saddening. At least the ALP have introduced some local employment and materials quotas for govt. projects.
Pity also we have a very weak incoming Foreign Policy team with Goodies and Baddies Abbott captain and Julie Bishop several leagues out of her depth. JB’s great moment in parliament was her week-long persual of Julia Gillard over the AWU pseudo-scandal in which JB looked persisently confused and tongue-tied, culminating in the infamous Ventriloquist’s Doll question. HINT: Syria will be harder to negotiate with than the ALP.
Here is Greg Sheridan, Australian journalist, Abbott’s buddy since University and LNP cheer-squad leader on Julie Bishop (specifically her comments on the Stern Hu affair of 2010)
internally contradictory, unprincipled, amoral beyond even the exigencies of parliamentary hypocrisy and profoundly stupid. Bishop was a dud shadow treasurer and is now a dud foreign affairs spokeswoman.
Plainly Rudd and Carr wipe the floor with Abbott and Bishop on foreign affairs.
Fans of the incoming LNP govt., please note that the LNP budget recovery plan is identical to that of the ALP i.e. no surplus for at least six years. At least the ALP named a year. The LNP could not even name a decade when this glorious event, supposedly ingrained in their very DNA, will occur. Jokers.
Most of the LNP’s major policies have been lifted directly from the ALP: Paid Parental Leave, NBN, Disability Care, Gonski. The only major exception is the end of Carbon Pricing.
ALP Rudd/Gillard Major Achievement: Disability Care.
Lesser Achievements: Plain Packaging of Tobacco, Apology To Aboriginal Australians, Gonski Funding Review, Comprehensive Upgrade of National Schools Infrastructure during BER, Presidency of the UN Security Council (something which seems to have utterly flummoxed Abbott).
Might-Be Achievement: Carbon Pricing (Please let the Senate hold).
Achievements Which Will Be Scuttled: NBN (redeemable after the inevitable hugely expensive overhaul), Marine Parks, Extra Compulsory Superannuation.
Gutless Non-Achievement: Squib of Gambling Reform. Once in a generation opportunity missed there.
UnAchievements: Jumpy policy making including stuffing up the Mining Tax, just lately suddenly jeopardising the FBT benefit on Motor Vehicles, resiling from Climate Change action in 2009 and that precipitous sudden ban on live cattle exports. Also funding programs through a degraded revenue base (Mining Tax and Terms Of Trade) which continues and intensifies the structural budget deficit created by the LNP under Howard and Costello.
Economic Management: Patchy. Happy with GFC response, but not with continued structural budget deficit (see above). Can’t agree on funding Gonski on borrowings, though I approve of the change in the funding formula.
A last glimmer of hope – a Double Dissolution election on Climate Change after another scorching summer (but hotter) and a brutal Audit of Commonwealth expenditure pace Newman.
We lives in hope Preciouses!