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Monthly Archives: January 2016

Why Did The USA Sign The Nuclear Deal With Iran ?

The USA has allowed an Iranian nuclear program to continue and will allow $100bn in embargoed oil revenues to return once compliance is established (approx. 1 year).

So what does the USA get ?

Normally I would follow the money, but US corporations and trade do not benefit under this deal. Most, if not all, trade and commercial relations with Iran by US interests and subsidiaries are still prohibited.

But the deal is still about preserving US/Israeli regional hegemony. Iran, however, held the upper hand and so got the lions share of the short-term benefit.

In short, Iran has successfully developed a semi-clandestine nuclear program to the point where it could start producing a nuclear weapons within three months if it rushed to production.

The deal stipulates the decommissioning of 2/3rds of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges, the export (and therefore loss to Iran) of 98% of Iran’s enriched uranium and places a cap on the level to which Iran may enrich Uranium in the future.

In other words, the deal is designed to prevent Iran producing nuclear weapons in the short and medium term.

The deal has a sunset of 15 years. After that time all nuclear sanctions and limitations are lifted.

The USA is just trying to buy some time.

In the meantime the deal preserves Israel as the only nuclear state in the Middle East, thus preserving US/Israeli hegemony.

Just on ‘buying time’, the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program only increase the difficulty in making a nuclear weapon by a small quantum.

Under pre-deal conditions Iran could rush to weaponisation in three months. Under post-deal conditions it will still take only one year. The US hasn’t bought much time for its $100bn – but OTOH it may be sufficient time.

Also, US satellite coverage of Iran is complete. If Iran attempted to even move a nuclear warhead to a missile base, that action would be detected instantly and the entire country destroyed within 60 seconds.

Some say that the $100bn in returned oil revenue and lifting of economic embargo buys the US military support for Iran against ISIS.

My view is that the USA actually supports ISIS in Syria as it wants to evict the Russia and their proxy Assad (whereas Iran is opposed to ISIS in Syria)

But the USA is truly opposed to ISIS in Iraq, as is Iran.

I think the USA is actually playing dead in Syria with limited bombing campaigns as a public relations exercise. It is hoping that ISIS/Turkey can evict Russia/Assad/Iran from Syria. The determination of Russia to hold Syria has been a game-changer and put ISIS on the back foot.

On a personal note it is interesting to note that the alliances in Syria are aligning extremely well with the scenario described in the Gog and Magog invasion of Ezekiel 38 as a precursor to Biblical End Times.

So the USA will oppose Iran in Syria, but support it in Iraq, where their interests are aligned.

I think it likely that the Nuclear Deal has been brokered partly on this shared geo-political basis.

So, if the USA-Iran Nuclear deal supports US/Israeli hegemony, why do The Republican Party and Israel oppose it ?

My guess is that probably The Republicans simply reject diplomacy a priori as a political strategy, They wish to entrench Military Bombardment as the single and only US posture in International Relations, seeing this as a more secure long-term guarantor of hegemony.

Possibly Israel has a similar view of itself vis-a-vis Middle Eastern relations.

To put it in a nutshell, Iran had the USA by the throat in regard to the strength of its negotiation position. Iran was on the very threshold of producing nuclear weapons: literally a matter of weeks. The USA had no choice but to offer Iran gigantic bribes to unplug its nuclear weapons program.

I suspect though that the deal will not prevent Iran developing nuclear weapons. Look, they basically managed to do it already under full embargo. I don’t think they will abandon the regional power that comes from being a nuclear power.

I would say that Obama is already dudded.

Further Reading

Here’s a good analysis of the relative risks of options open to the USA in relation to Iran’s Nuclear program: Do Nothing, Bomb, Return To Sanctions or Diplomatic Compromise (as recently concluded by Obama in this deal).

From the perspective of Liberal Party donors, could Abbott’s Prime Ministership actually be seen as a colossal success ?

He destroyed the Motor Vehicle and associated Components Industries which has eliminated thousands of unionists and crippled a major Union.

He also destroyed the Submarine Industry, eliminating even more unionists.

He has made Carbon Pricing politically impossible for at least two Federal Election cycles – until 2020 at the earliest.

He destabilised the Renewable Energy sector. Some repair now in progress by Malcolm Turnbull.

His Royal Commission Into Trade Unions (TURC) has full potential to make both Unionism and the ALP synonymous with crime in the public mind.

He has pushed de-Federalisation of Public Education and Public Health into a live Federal issue. The next budget may well make this a centrepiece of the LNP policy platform, masked by an election campaign based on TURC smear, thus sneaking defunding of public education and health through as a ‘mandate’ while the election is fought on other issues

This will kill two more Unions and eliminate all Federal spending on Health and Education. Hey Presto – Budget surplus and LNP proven again to be great economic managers.

Passed legislation to conceal earnings of company board members, CEOs and the like. Prevents questions arising about stratospheric and ridiculous salaries self-awarded by board members who are mostly LNP voters, members and donors and also dampens calls arising for higher income taxes to be levied on the super-wealthy. Remember most board members are members and CEOs on multiple boards.

Declined to give the iconic Australian company and important regional employer SPC (Shepparton Preserving Company) Federal funds to maintain operations. This almost killed off more unionised jobs, but regrettably for LNP donors the Victorian State government provided emergency funds and kept SPC trading. SPC used the funds for strategic capital investment and now look set to continue profitable operations, an outcome which unhapplly for LNP donors has maintained some unionists in employment.

So there is the list of achievements: Tony Abbott – greatest and most effective LNP Prime Minister of all time as seen from the perspective of LNP donors.

This Christmas just past, my sister and I vocalised some truths about our extended family that were not pleasant. They were real things that we knew and which happened to us. It made Christmas lunch a little bit uncomfortable, a bit tense. But the things we said were true and everyone knew they were true.

When we were children we didn’t say anything because kids don’t get a say much. As younger adults we still didn’t say anything because power still lay with others present and we felt obliged and constrained to keep the status quo out of respect for the unspoken myths and rules of conduct of our family. We knew that what we wanted to say would not be welcomed.

Besides which, there was plenty we enjoyed and loved about our family

Finally as fully-fledged adults in our own right, decades later, we felt like we wanted to say those things that were true, which we knew, which happened to us. We didn’t feel like we wanted to keep on hearing the same myths repeated over and again and we didn’t want to keep some other very important things left eternally unsaid just to satisfy the emotional needs of others.

So we said what we knew to be true. What everyone knew to be true.

It was a bit uncomfortable. A somewhat awkward Christmas lunch.

That’s how Australia Day feels to me. I feel a bit awkward and tense when the Aboriginal people tell confronting truths about my family. I don’t like it. But I know its true.

They’ve had enough. They can’t stomach sitting quietly listening to those same old myths any more. Sitting quietly when everyone knows different anyway. Just listening to those half-truths, so everyone else can feel better and forget about what they really did.

I don’t blame them. When you grow up you have a right to be heard. To take your place at the table. Its not as if Australia is unaware of our atrocities anyway. We should let them speak to us and acknowledge what is true. This very small respect should be granted.

Even if we have to revise our family history.

Did you see the First Dog cartoon ?
Absolutely searing.

Top job, First Dog !

Yeah, so that’s why Australia Day feels like an uncomfortable family Christmas to me.