Solar Interial Motion Hypothesis Cannot Explain Recent Global Warming

As a result of comments in this thread at Lavartus Prodeo, I have been Googling Solar Inertial Motion. Discussion on it is not easy to find outside anti-AGW websites.

The application of Solar Interial Motion (SIM) to Climate Change is a work of the Australian scientist, recently deceased, Rhodes Fairbridge

After some poking around, I found that SIM is a particular case of the Sunspot explanation for climate change, i.e. that changes in Solar Output explain Global Warming and Cooling.

Here’s Fairbridge in his article The “Solar Jerk”, The King-Hele Cycle,and the Challenge to Climate Science”

“… a planet revolving about the Sun in its “Keplerian” elliptical orbit delivered no energetic jolt to the Sun’s photosphere, such as might explain the episodic growth of sunspots.

But when two planets are involved, as the faster one passes the slower one, there is briefly a combined gravitational effect that is felt by each of the planets, and more importantly, by the Sun itself. This is not a tide (which is minuscule), but a torque.

The outer, gaseous layers of that star have a low viscosity that is susceptible to any change in the angular momentum…”

…so causing sunspots.

Fairbridge’s work is briefly discussed in comments on the pro-AGW WebSite Skeptical Science in the post “Global cooling: the new kid on the block” with contributions by a proponent of SIM. The Skeptical Science moderator responds:

… Fairbridge’s work but the general gist is that the alignment of the planets affects the sun’s angular velocity which affects solar output…the question of whether solar output is driving global warming has been thoroughly analysed.

and links to a page with this summary, well-known to anyone with an interest in the AGW debate:

Solar activity has shown little to no long term trend since the 1950’s. Consequently, any correlation between sun and climate ended in the 1970’s when the modern global warming trend began.

From the above it appears that the reason SIM is not in lively discussion is that it is already discredited. Solar forcings do not correlate to recent temperature data. CO2 does.

As Btian Eno might say: Here Come The Warm Jets

 

Father, we make claims on our knees
Dawn enter here for we’ve nowhere to be
Nowhere to be
Nowhere to be

Father, stains they’re all on our knees
Down on our words and we’ve nothing to be
Nothing to be
Nothing to be

image: http://static.urx.io/units/web/urx-unit-loader.gif

Father, down we’re all on our saints
Paid to appease though we’ve nothing these days
Nothing these days
Nothing these days

Father, here they’re sprawled in a daze
We’re down on our knees and we’ve nothing to say
Read more at http://www.songlyrics.com/brian-eno/here-come-the-warm-jets-lyrics/#H0FjYZueXeL1iK3Q.99

The title Warm Jets came from the guitar sound on the track of that name, which I described on the track sheet as ‘warm jet guitar’, because it sounded like a tuned jet. Then I had the pack of playing cards with the picture of the woman in there, and they sort of connected. That was one of the things that was going on at the time: this idea that music was still tied to some idea of revolution, and that one of the revolutions was a sexual revolution. I wasn’t making a big political point, I just liked having fun with those things. Most people didn’t realise for a long time — it was rather deeply concealed!”

Brian Eno, interviewed by Andy Gill in Mojo, June 1998

Popping Into Being

As a result of a conversation on another blog I was motivated to Google for the following scientific hypothesis:

The “popping into being” idea is that the probability of a universe popping into being is not (quite) zero, therefore it’s gonna happen.

Its One Of Hawking’s

Hawking explains the “popping into being” theory in “Stephen Hawking Says Universe Created From Nothing” (2007)

It’s an entertaining read. The theory is based on work done by:

Richard Feynman a brilliant physicist at the California Institute of Technology. He proposed that a system got from a state A, to a state B, by every possible path or history.

Each path or history, has a certain amplitude or intensity, and the probability of the system going from A to B, is given by adding up the amplitudes for each path. There will be a history in which the moon is made of blue cheese, but the amplitude is low

Come Again ?

So non-existence is posited merely as a state which can be moved freely from or to and this movement is achieved by traversing all possible paths, including the one in which Invisble Pink Unicorns tap dance on tables at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe. You are expected to take this seriously, even once you swallow the concept of non-existence as a valid state.

Non-existence as a state is a logical contradiction. Its like asking where you want the immovable object put.

Hawking goes on:

The picture Jim Hartle and I developed, of the spontaneous quantum creation of the universe, would be a bit like the formation of bubbles of steam in boiling water.

The idea is that the most probable histories of the universe, would be like the surfaces of the bubbles. Many small bubbles would appear, and then disappear again. These would correspond to mini universes that would expand, but would collapse again while still of microscopic size. They are possible alternative universes, but they are not of much interest since they do not last long

As I understand this, Hawking is talking about the expansion of the Universe fom a singularity. Which seems to me that Hawking wants to have his Invisible Pink Unicorn and eat it too. If the Universe is non-existent, where did the singularity come from ?

Perhaps I misunderstand the article. I am happy to be corrected.

Science. Yairs. *Cough*

So there you have “popping into being”. As might be expected from an untestable and highly entertaining idea from the realms of pure creativity it is full of preposterous nonsense and downright contradiction.

But because this fairy story is labelled “Science” many swallow it without bothering to read the fine print. And for many on the Left, or fanatical atheists like Stepehn Hawking and Richard Dawkins, anything that ejects God from the room is axiomatically justified.

The Weirdest Christmas Card I Ever Sent

Season’s Gruntings.

As Christmas roars toward us I am reminded of the cheapest box of Christmas Cards I ever purchased. I am a cheapskate and love digging around for specials of say 800 Christmas cards for $1.50 – that would be ideal. So I buy such a box and start happily posting them off, admiring their awful quality and designs only tangentially related to Christmas, when one stopped me in my tracks.
The design was a bunch of animals playing in a playground sliding down slippery-dips, bouncing on trampolines etc. There was a Walrus, a Penguin, a Bear and maybe a Fish. It was as if a Birthday card for a two-year old had been mislabelled “Merry Christmas”.

Next day the penny dropped. The animals were all the kinds of animals you would find at the North Pole…where Santa lives…so that was the connection to Christmas. It was a generic “things associated with ice” card.

I am looking for this year’s set which I’m told feature Russian Nuclear Powered Submarines surfing through fields of anchovies.

Merry Christmas!

A. A. Milne And The Messing Up Machine

My son celebrated his 4th Birthday recently and his aunty gave him the collected stories of Winnie The Pooh by A. A. Milne. What a delight those stories are: whimsical, humorous, tender, with a keen eye of love for the emotions, thoughts and imaginitive life of Christopher Robin, A. A. Milne’s amaneusis and 5 year old son.

A. A. Milne And Me

As I read the adventures of Winnie The Pooh I immediately recognised them as Milne’s equivalents of the stories I tell my own son. In the same way my boy says, “Daddy, tell me a story about how Cheetah went to play at his friend’s house” and I say “Ah..yeah..sure…Lessee…One day Cheetah woke up and [spies stuffed Parrot] rang Parrot on his Mobile Phone and said [spies Lego action figure] Hawk-Man needs our help to find a big chocolate crocodile…[etc]“, I recognised Milne’s characters and plot as the spontaneous creation of a Father’s bed-time stories.

And I was delighted to find that, like the literary legend Milne, I injected my son as a character into my stories the same way he did.

All Dads Do It

Recognising the fraternity of Dads and Christopher Robins worldwide I don’t think Milne would be insulted to have my own family’s bedtime stories recounted next to his. So here goes:

Bob The Bandicoot’s Messing Up Machine

Bob The Bandicoot (this character’s species plagiarised from ‘The Magic Pudding’) lived in the sandhills not far from the Bunnies carrot patch. (The Bunnies in the sandhills are long-time bedtime story characters from a camping trip we did to Bulli Caravan Park where rabbits live in profusion).

Bob is an inventor and loves to make machines. One day, looking around at the mess in his shed he said “I know, I’ll build a tidying-up machine”. So he got a whole lot of metal, old engines, fish hooks, blades from an old fan and lots of string and built a tidying up machine. Then he put the batteries in and turned in on. ‘Hoot-Hoot!’ went the machine. (This Noise plagiarised from Professor Branestawm’s Automatic Bowling Machine)

‘Hello, tidying up machine’ said Bob. ‘Could you please tidy up all my nails ?”
“NO!” said the tidying up machine and he stomped his legs and took his remote control off Bob Bandicoot and put it in his pocket. Then he tipped out all the nails, pushed over the cupboars full of metal, took the milk out of the fridge and poured it on the ground and got the string and tied it all up into knots. Then he went stomping out of the shed and ran off into the sandhills.

‘Oh no’ said Bob Bandicoot, ‘The Messing Up Machine is headed for the bunnies burrow. I better tell Mr. Crocodile.’ So he rang up Mr. Crocodile straight away.

RING-RING went the phone in Mr. Crocodile’s house. ‘Who is it ?’ said Mr. Crocodile.
‘It’s me, Bob Bandicoot’, said Bob Bandicoot. My tidying up machine is all cranky and he messed up my shed and now he’s going over to the Bunnies’ carrot patch. Can you please help ?
‘Sure thing’ said Mr. Crocodile ‘I’ll be right over’ And he got straight in his bus and but some strong rope in it and went driving off to the Bunnies Burrow.

Just then the Bunnies were having breakfast.
“White Bunny, ” said Mummy Bunny, “can you please go up to our patch and bring back two nice carrots for our breakfast ?”
“Sure thing” said White Bunny and he went up the burrow to the surface but as he got near the top of his burrow he heard a terrible big noise outside. White Bunny carefully stuck up his whiskers and nose and had a peek. Oh No! The Messing-Up Machine was getting his hooks and pulling up all the Bunnies’ carrots and throwing them around and making a huge mess! White Bunny went straight back down his burrow. “Mummy, a big machine is hooking up all our carrots and throwing them around and making a big mess!” “Hmmm. I know ” said Mummy Bunny, “I will call Mr. Crocodile”

RING-RING went Mr. Crocodile’s phone again.
“Who is it ?”, said Mr. Crocodile.
“Its Mummy Bunny”, said Mummy Bunny “A nasty big Messing Up Machine is wrecking all our carrots and throwing them everywhere. Can you please come over and help ?”
“I’m already on my way” said Mr. Crocodile, “I’ll just be a few minutes”

“Brmmm-whz-bang-toot-toot-POP! (This noise plagiarized from Madness, 80’s Two-tone Ska band “I Go Driving In My Car”) went Mr. Crocodile’s bus as it came to a stop outside the Bunnies Burrow. “Hello there, Bunnies, I’m here. Can I come in ? Where’s the Messing Up Machine ?”
“Over there in our carrot patch” said White Bunny
Mr. Crocodile got out his binoculars and had a look. The Messing Up Machine was still throwing carrots everywhere and making a huge mess.

“Hmmm.” said Mr. Crocodile. “I Know what to do. Let’s build a big hole and make Messing Up Machine fall in.”
So the Bunnies began to did with their paws because they have big paws and are very good at digging burows and holes. And Mr. Crocodile began to dig too because he can dig holes in the muddy river bank, so he swished his big tail and helped the bunnies dig a big hole.

“Now let’s cover it with sticks and branches” said Mr. Crocodile “so the Messing Up Machine can’t see it”. So the bunnies and Mr. Crocodile got stcks and branches from the trees in the sandhills and covered up the hole.

When the hole was ready, Mr.Crocodile whistled to the Messing Up Machine. “Hey machine! Come over here. Here’s some crunchy carrots you missed”
The Messing Up Machine stopped throwing carrots and went stomping towards Mr. Crocodile. “Give me those crunchy carrots!” he said.
“No, said Mr. Crocodile, “you come and get them”
So the Messing Up Machine came stomping over but when he stepped on the sticks, what happened ? Yes, he fell in the big hole with a big CRASH!!

“Now” said Mr. Crocodile, “give me back your remote control”.
“NO!” said the Messing Up Machine. And he stomped and went HOOT-HOOT and smoke came out his ears.
“OK” said Mr. Crocodile “you stay in the hole then”

Messing Up Machien stayed in the hole a long time and then it began to rain and all the sand at the bottom of the hole turned into sticky mud.
“Aww.” said the Messing Up Machine “I don’t like this mud. I’ve been a naughty machine” and he called out for Mr. Crocodile “HOOT-HOOT. Mr Crocodile!”

“Yes ?” said Mr.Crocodile/
“I’ve been a naughty machine ” said the Tidying Up Machine “I want to be good now and be helpful. Can I come out the hole now ?” And he gave Mr. Crocodile back his remote control with one of his big hooks.
“Yes you can said Mr. Crocodile” and he got the strong rope and tied one end to his bus and the other end to the tidying-up machine. Then get started his bus “Brrm-BRRM-Whiz-Bang-Toot-Toot-POP!” went the big engine and then the bus pulled the Tidying-Up Machine out of the hole”.

“Sorry” said the Tidying-Up Machine and he went back to Bob Bandicoot’s shed and put all the nails back in their tray, wiped up all the Milk with with a superwipe, picked up the cupboards and used his hooks to get all the knots out of the string.

Then he sat down and had a nice drink of oil and petrol and two bananas and four pieces of toast and a chocolate biscuit for tea.

======== The End ============

Symbols And Their Meanings

The story is about obedience and discipline
Messing Up Machine: A toddler or small child.
Mr. Crocodile: Daddy

Others In The Series

How White Bunny Turned Green And Then Turned White Again.
Cheetah Goes On Holiday

The Terror Of The Boat People: Howard Inciting Racially-Linked Fear and Prejudice

Maximum Nasty

Here’s an incident from the 2001 Federal Election that shows John Howard’s nastiness to maximum effect. Specifically, it shows how Howard incited racially-linked fear and prejudice in the electorate for political advantage.

I record it here as a way of giving more publicity to the insidious poison that Howard leached into the mainstream during his tenure as Prime Minister. Truly a nasty little era.

The incident is related in Mungo MacCallum, ‘Political Anecdotes’, 2003, p. 274, the original source being Peter Charlton in Solomon (ed.) Howard’s Race (2002) pp. 127-128.

The Terror Of The Boat People

“As Tom Allard of the SMH reported after the election, ‘It was past deadline for most papers so The Courier-Mail’s political editor Dennis Atkins had his laptop computer open and was showing his fellow reporters the front page splash the Brisbane newspaper was running the next morning. The article…began: “Australia had no way to be certain terrorists, or people with terrorist links, were not among the asylum seekers trying to enter the country by boat from Indonesia, Prime Minister John Howard said

The article went on to say that Howard had linked terrorism and Australia’s border protection stance for the first time. It paraphrased Howard comparing the current situation with the end of World War II, when Nazi war criminals had slipped into Australia.

As Howard passed by, Atkins showed the story to him. ‘Good’ Howard said, ‘Excellent’”

‘Excellent’. Yes in a hateful kind of fear-mongering way. Howard’s definition of excellent.

David Marr also records the Howard-Atkins incident described above in his book on Howard’s 2001 election campaign, Dark Victory

Let’s Give That Another Run

Samantha Maiden of The Australian recalled the Atkins article in her piece ‘Terrorists On Boats Claim Date Back To Howard” in Oct. 2009 as she reports on the shameless Wilson Tuckey rehashing the old bile in relation to contemporary Sri Lankan Tamil refugees.

Record Muslim Immigration Under Howard

It is sometimes claimed that Howard cannot be racist and does not hate Muslims because a record number of Muslims entered Australia under conventional immigration programs during his tenure and Howard did not ban or compromise Federal Funding of Islamic schools (e.g Paul Sheehan Still a Land Of Fair Go Despite Fabrications) To my mind the facts referred to by Howard’s defenders only succeed in making Howard’s culpability worse.

Howard does not specifically detest Muslims more than he does against any other non-Anglo (apart from his general mistrust of any non-Anglo or less than fully assimilated aussified immigrant), except that Muslims are associated with 9/11. But Howard actually knows that the vast majority of Muslims are as sensible, peaceful and law-abiding as anybody else.

So Howard is 95% as content to allow Muslims to immigrate to Australia as any other low wages immigrant. After all Immigrants are a necessary part of Australia’s low wages unskilled and semi-skilled economy. Anglos on the whole are too proud to clean toilets or take comparable low wage, low status jobs. Business needs these people and Howard is a servant of the Business class.

But when convenient Howard uses Muslims as community scapegoats for political purposes. In other words Howard uses people as objects of his ambition. People are instrumental vehicles to him, means to ends. He doesn’t hate Muslims or Chinese particularly. He’ll just use abuse, discard, embrace, scapegoat, or exalt them in whatever form serves the interests of J. Howard Esq.

And that’s an offence against basic decency.

Why Australia Is Obliged To Accept Refugees

Boat people, however, are not conventional immigrants. They are refugees. Refugees have internationally-recognised legal status under The United Nations Refugee Convention of 1951 to which Australia is a signatory. Because we signed the convention, we are obliged to accept refugees.

[T]he term ‘refugee’ shall apply to any person who…owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his [sic.] nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.
– Refugee Convention, Article 1(A)(2)

As Robert Manne explained in his excellent essay from 2004“Sending Them Home” The United Nations Refugee Convention of 1951 was created as a consequence of the fate of Jews before World War 2 and displaced persons immediately following World War 2. Jews unable to flee, or returned to, Nazi Germany were of course liquidated. As Stalinism spread across Eastern Europe similar tragedies occurred with many innocent persons seeking to escape totalitarian rule.

Thus the convention was created as an act of good conscience by nations supporting liberal democratic principles and basic justice and humanity.

Thus recognized, Howard’s de-facto rejection of the 1951 Refugee Convention is an act of a deeply mean spirit. And Howard’s specific comments above, where those fleeing totalitarianism are themselves described as the totalitarians, represent an inversion of the humanitarian spirit of the treaty. This is disgusting enough; but when we remember that Howard does this purely for political expediency we have come face-to-face with a souless man.

Howard’s Bare Point

Howard is a sneaky and deceitful person. And like all sneaks he uses even the truth where expedient to try to deceive. Yes, some Nazi’s did conceal themselves amongst the tide of legitimate refugees in order to escape justice, but to use this bare point as a justification for towing all refugess boats into the open sea is to focus on the gnat in the herd of camels. In usual form Howard is using fear to manipulate the electorate. That use of xenophobix fear for political purposes, so typical of Howard, is contemptible.